Riverina Winegrape Growers CEO Jeremy Cass says industry is drowning in oversupply

The surplus means the nation is practically swimming in wine, to the effect of over two billion litres.

A recent Rabobank report equated this to over 2.8 million bottles or 859 Olympic swimming pools, and Riverina Winegrape Growers CEO Jeremy Cass believes that hits the mark.

"It's about 200,000 tones of oversupply," Mr Cass said.

"While I think it's still too early to say for sure, I think if everyone gets a regular harvest there could be between 50 and 100,000 tones dumped in our region alone."

China's recent removal of tariffs on Australian barley has led to optimism that the export giant will soon lift five-year tariffs placed on Australian wine in 2021.

But Mr Cass says even if that happened tomorrow, the issue wouldn't necessarily be remedied.

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"Barely is more in demand because it's used for a whole raft of things, whereas wine is alcohol, a more niche product and a harder sell," Mr Cass said.

"We've already lost market share to France and South Africa. Even if you cut the market in half, China would still be our biggest export and I think when we do get back in, the beast will be different because general consumption of alcohol is dropping.

"Most winemakers would say they have full tanks - the problem is what happens if we get a good crop?

"At the moment, we're trying to find a way to maintain vineyard assets without having to put too much towards them.

"Some growers are also transitioning to other crops like prunes and citrus, while big players are looking at things like almonds."

Mr Cass said the industry did not envision the issue would become as problematic as it has.

"As soon as Scott Morrison accused China of being responsible for COVID, that's when the wheels fell off the bus," Mr Cass said.

"We probably should have seen that the market was dropping in terms of China's taste for alcohol, but mostly we didn't see it coming.

"Three years ago there was a technical conference and everyone was saying we had barely scratched the surface in terms of trade with China. The conference put together their 30-year plan.

"Now, because things have changed so much, that plan is being re-done just a few short years after it was implemented."

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