Why did the National Party win the Murray by-election on Saturday October 14?
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One word: Griffith
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Helen Dalton gave the Nationals a hammering in Deniliquin, where she won every booth.
She also outpolled National Party candidate Austin Evans in a number of small towns across the electorate, including Beelbangera, Lake Wyangan, Yenda, Goolgowi, Whitton, Wakool, Wamoon and Mathoura.
Had Mrs Dalton achieved similar swings in other parts of the seat, she would have broken the Nationals 33-year grip on this part of the world and made her way towards NSW Parliament.
But in the heart of the Murray electorate – Griffith – the Nationals vote held up remarkably well, enough to offset the stronger swings against them elsewhere.
In the three biggest booths in Deniliquin – where a forced council merger was a big issue – Mrs Dalton picked up 60 per cent of the two party preferred vote to Mr Evans 40 per cent.
But in the biggest booths near the Griffith town centre – Griffith North Public, Griffith Public and Wade High schools, and Griffith PCYC – Mr Evans captured 55 per cent of the vote.
Ironically, Mrs Dalton seemed to underperform in the part of the electorate where she was best known.
Griffith was also a town where disenchantment with the NSW government over inadequate hospital services, water policy and education seemed to be high.
So why did the Nationals do so much better in Griffith than in other parts of the electorate?
In the absence of any meaningful post-election polling, observers can only speculate.
Certainly, Griffith received an incredible level of attention from politicians in the run up to the election.
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian visited Griffith three times in the last three months, including on election day. A host of other National Party figures and government ministers visited as well, each bringing news of another funding boost with them.
Another theory is that the National Party’s scare campaign on gun laws was most effective in the most urbanised part of the electorate – Griffith
In the wake of a mass shooting in Las Vegas, many senior Coalition figures, including former Prime Minister John Howard, urged people not to vote for a Shooters Party who have the policy of deregulating some of the restrictions on guns.
But whatever the reason, the numbers told a simple story of Griffith rescuing the Nationals when they seemed destined for defeat.