AS GOVERNMENT ministers yesterday tried to hose down the leadership speculation The Age/Nielsen poll shows Julia Gillard has now regained a slight 50- 47 per cent lead as preferred Labor leader among ALP voters while Coalition voters overwhelmingly prefer Kevin Rudd.

More than six in 10 Coalition supporters favour Mr Rudd and only 26 per cent opt for Ms Gillard. Green voters also strongly favour the former PM over the current one (58-38 per cent).

Of total voters, 57 per cent prefer Mr Rudd, and 35 per cent Ms Gillard.

More than seven in 10 (72 per cent, up 3 points since June 2011) of those backing Mr Rudd think a change should be made, while 23 per cent say the party should stick with Ms Gillard, despite their preference for Mr Rudd.

Support among voters for Mr Rudd as preferred leader has been relatively consistent: 55 per cent in April last year, 60 per cent in June, 61 per cent in October, and now 57 per cent.

Mr Rudd is most popular in his home state, with 65 per cent of Queenslanders backing him. In Victoria he is much less popular - on 50 per cent compared with Mr Gillard's 39 per cent.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said Ms Gillard had the strong support of the caucus, but he refused to be drawn on whether he would continue to serve on the frontbench if Mr Rudd became leader, telling the ABC he did not accept the assumptions in the question and he would not respond to hypotheticals.

Mr Rudd and Mr Swan do not get on, and Mr Swan's future as both deputy and Treasurer would be a major question if there was a baton change.

Crossbencher Bob Katter told Sky ''there is no doubt that a lot of Kevin's thinking would be very similar to my thinking'', but said the carbon and mining taxes posed a problem for him.

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